Daily Outlook Feed

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Major USD rally as Key Technical levels broken. CURRENCY TRADING SUMMARY – 11th August 2008 (00:30GMT)

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· U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) continued its post Trichet rally into the Asian session, gaining against every currency. US economic data missed targets but this was overlooked, Q2 Non productivity rose 2.2% vs. 2.5% expected and Labor Costs rose 1.3% around expectations. Oil continued to slide and prompted a major US equity rally also supporting the dollar. In the U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 58 points (2.48%) and the Dow Jones was up 302 points (2.65%). Crude Oil closed down $4.82 ending the New York session at $115.20 per barrel.

· The Euro (EUR) broke through the Key 1.5300 level in early Asian trade and continued to fall testing the 1.5000 level during the US session. Falling Oil and a readjustment of Eurozone economic outlooks the main catalyst. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.4997 and a high of 1.5336 before closing the day at 1.5005 in the New York session. Looking ahead, German Wholesale Price index is expected at 0.5% in July.

· The Japanese Yen (JPY) gained against most crosses as the major’s weighed lead by the EUR/USD on the EUR/JPY. USD/JPY did gain though breaking through the key 110 level as US stocks surged. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 109.30 and a high of 110.37 before closing the day around 110.20 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July Corporate Goods Price expected at 0.8%.

· The Sterling (GBP) tracked the Euro lower breaking through supports at 1.9410 to year lows. Market is awaiting the BOE Inflation report for further Interest rate direction. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.9146 and a high of 1.9439 before closing the day at 1.9200 in the New York session. Looking ahead, July PPI Core Output is seen at 0.4%, PPI input at 1% and PPI Output at 0.5%. Also released the June trade Balance seen at -7.4Bln.
· The Australian Dollar (AUD) continued its recent plunge this time as the USD strengthened, breaking through .9000 for the first time since March and confirming the biggest 3 week fall since 1980. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.8866 and a high of 0.9077 before closing the US session at 0.8990. Looking ahead, RBA Monetary Policy statement.

· Gold (XAU) broke lower as USD strengthened and Oil dropped off. Strong support at $850 held. Overall trading with a low of USD$851.50 and high of USD$873.50 ending the New York session at USD$857 an ounce.

TECHNICAL COMMENTARY

Currency

Sup 2

Sup 1

Spot

Res 1

Res 2

EUR/USD

1.4778

1.4956

1.4955

1.5025

1.5335

USD/JPY

108.22

109.14

109.80

110.24

112.15

GBP/USD

1.8838

1.9105

1.9165

1.9438

1.9538

AUD/USD

0.8819

0.8875

0.8860

0.9074

0.9131

XAU/USD

846.00

851.73

860.00

873.50

886.50

· Euro – 1.4955

Initial support at 1.4956 (Feb 1 low) followed by 1.4778 (Feb 28 low). Initial resistance is now located 1.5025 (Aug 8 low) at followed by 1.5335 (Aug 8 high).

· Yen – 109.80

Initial support is located at 109.14 (Aug 7 low) followed by 108.22 (Aug 6). Initial resistance is now at 110.24 (AUG 8 high) followed by 112.15 (Jan 2 high).

· Pound – 1.9165

Initial support at 1.9105 (50% retrace 1.7048 to 2.1161) followed by 1.8838 (Nov 15 2006). Initial resistance is now at 1.9438 (Aug 8 high) followed by 1.9538 (Aug 7 high).

· Australian Dollar – 0.9860

Initial support at 0.8875 (Feb 7 low) followed by 0.8819 (Jan 31 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.9074 (Aug 8 high) followed by 0.9131 (Aug 7 high).

· Gold – 860

Initial support at 851.73 (Aug 8 low) followed by 846 (May 2 low). Initial resistance is now at 873.5 (Aug 6 high) followed by 886.5 (Aug 5 high).

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